{"id":43,"date":"2016-12-14T16:30:26","date_gmt":"2016-12-14T16:30:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs-staging.imperial.ac.uk\/security-institute\/?p=43"},"modified":"2016-12-14T16:30:26","modified_gmt":"2016-12-14T16:30:26","slug":"the-origin-of-threat-assessment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs-staging.imperial.ac.uk\/security-institute\/2016\/12\/14\/the-origin-of-threat-assessment\/","title":{"rendered":"The origin of threat assessment"},"content":{"rendered":"

A post by Helen Greenhough, PhD Research Student, Imperial College, Dept of Computing<\/strong><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

As an analyst in the defense sector, the adage of threat = capability\u00a0x intent was widely accepted.\u00a0\u00a0 But where did it come from?<\/p>\n

In the course of my research I was pleased to come across what appears to be the original source of this equation\u00a0in J. David Singer’s 1958 paper ‘Threat Perception and Armament-Tension Dilemma’ and was originally:\u00a0\u00a0 ‘Threat-Perception = Estimated Capability x Estimated Intent’ [p94, Singer, J. 1958]. \u00a0\u00a0This quasi-formula\u00a0 posits that the perception of a threat\u00a0can be reduced to zero by either reducing military capability or military intent.\u00a0 In the context of Springer’s paper the equation was\u00a0part of a discussion\u00a0on a Cold-War disarmament strategy\u00a0 concluding that weapons, rather than being dismantled or re-purposed, should be transferred to the custody of the UN.\u00a0\u00a0 Ultimately\u00a0the Cold-War threat equation was reduced to zero not by removal of estimated capability but through the fall of the Soviet Union –\u00a0the removal of intent. While Springers’ suggestion of transferring weapons to the UN did not catch on, his equation did and\u00a0is still in use today in defense circles as part of Threat Assessment activities. Singer’s equation could be viewed as a form of quantitative risk evaluation, which under some frameworks is represented as: risk rating = probability of risk event x impact of risk event.\u00a0\u00a0 It is not entirely clear if Singer was inspired by the field of risk assessment, or even perhaps vice-versa but the two areas do seem to have much overlap, with the concepts of risk and threat being inherently interchangeable.<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Singer, Threat-Perception and the Armament-Tension Dilemma, The Journal of Conflict Resolution Vol 2, No 1 Studies on Attitudes and Communications, Mar 1958, pp 90-105, http:\/\/www.jstor.org\/stable\/172848<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

     <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    A post by Helen Greenhough, PhD Research Student, Imperial College, Dept of Computing As an analyst in the defense sector, the adage of threat = capability\u00a0x intent was widely accepted.\u00a0\u00a0 But where did it come from? In the course of my research I was pleased to come across what appears to be the original source […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":960,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[29377],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-cyber-security"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs-staging.imperial.ac.uk\/security-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs-staging.imperial.ac.uk\/security-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs-staging.imperial.ac.uk\/security-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs-staging.imperial.ac.uk\/security-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/960"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs-staging.imperial.ac.uk\/security-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/blogs-staging.imperial.ac.uk\/security-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":48,"href":"https:\/\/blogs-staging.imperial.ac.uk\/security-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43\/revisions\/48"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs-staging.imperial.ac.uk\/security-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs-staging.imperial.ac.uk\/security-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs-staging.imperial.ac.uk\/security-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}